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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 88

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to WAS 40, Center-48-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.32 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 88, worth -5.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP