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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 50

Washington Commanders 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to ATL 5, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.81 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model