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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 53
Atlanta Falcons 10 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(:29) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to ATL 47 for no gain (93-J.Allen).
The Three Options
GO
+0.66 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.74 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -1.84 EP
KICK
-0.76 EP
- 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
- 79% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT
-0.24 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
