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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 12

Washington Commanders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 6-J.Slye 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.92 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model