Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 76

Houston Texans 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to WAS 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-D.Milne to WAS 34 for 9 yards (34-T.Hairston). PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model