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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 7

Washington Commanders 23 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:27) 24-A.Gibson left guard to HOU 4 for 3 yards (25-D.King; 36-J.Owens).

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +2.55 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 7, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.07 EP