Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 86

Washington Commanders 23 – Houston Texans 3

(7:50) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to HOU 40, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 25-D.King to HOU 45 for 5 yards (39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.11 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model