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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 67

Houston Texans 3 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(10:56) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks ran ob at WAS 48 for 19 yards (20-B.McCain) [93-J.Allen].

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model