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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 26

Washington Commanders 20 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model