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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 25

Washington Commanders 20 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-B.Robinson left end to HOU 22 for 3 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model