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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 54

Washington Commanders 20 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to HOU 6, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 25-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model