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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Houston Texans
4th & 3 at the 15
Houston Texans 0 – Washington Commanders 20
What Actually Happened
(12:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles right end to WAS 11 for 4 yards (94-D.Payne).
The Three Options
GO
+2.12 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.16 EP
- 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP
KICK
+1.93 EP
- 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
- 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
