Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 77

Houston Texans 0 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to WAS 33, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 15-D.Milne. Penalty on WAS-47-K.Hudson, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model