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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 7

Washington Commanders 14 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 6-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on HOU, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 7, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model