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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 75

Washington Commanders 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to HOU 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 25-D.King to HOU 32 for 9 yards (34-C.Holmes; 54-C.Cheeseman).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.31 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model