Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 27 – Green Bay Packers 17

(5:05) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to GB 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 19 for 13 yards (40-D.Hilliard; 53-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.75 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -2.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model