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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(5:26) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 13-A.Lazard.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.39 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model