Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 17 – Tennessee Titans 27

(13:55) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to TEN 28, Center-56-J.Coco. 80-C.Board to TEN 37 for 9 yards (7-Q.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.59 EP
60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model