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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 21

Green Bay Packers 6 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.41 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model