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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 14-A.Lee punts 59 yards to SF 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model