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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to ARI 4, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP