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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 22

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.12 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model