Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 88

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 24

(4:36) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to SF 47, Center-46-A.Brewer. 3-R.McCloud to ARI 47 for 6 yards (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.00 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model