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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 3 at the 41
Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 24
What Actually Happened
(7:55) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass incomplete short right to 83-G.Dortch.
The Three Options
GO
+0.79 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.48 EP
- 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
KICK
-0.00 EP
- 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
- 44% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT
-0.02 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
