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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 21

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(:47) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.67 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model