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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 7

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(:19) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.87 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 7, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model