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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 2-D.Carlson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model