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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 6-A.Cole punts 30 yards to DEN 8, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.39 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model