Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 82

Denver Broncos 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(12:12) 17-C.Waitman punts 54 yards to LV 28, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-K.Cole pushed ob at LV 35 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.44 EP
71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model