Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-T.Sieg. 12-M.Washington to DEN 28 for 18 yards (80-J.Horsted). FUMBLES (80-J.Horsted), ball out of bounds at DEN 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.45 EP
76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -2.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model