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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 33

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model