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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 7

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) 8-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-M.Crosby), Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.36 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model