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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 30

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.55 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model