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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 28

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.69 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model