Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 95

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:19) 11-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to NO 46, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on LA-87-J.Harris, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NO 46.

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.04 EP
59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 95, worth -5.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model