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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 27 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 4-B.Gillikin punts 37 yards to LA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-B.Powell to LA 26 for 14 yards (55-K.Elliss).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.01 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model