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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 11-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to NO 30, Center-42-M.Orzech. 89-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 41 for 11 yards (87-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.51 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model