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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 17 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 11-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to NO 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model