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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 6

New Orleans Saints 24 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 3-W.Lutz 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model