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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 14 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model