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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 10 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 4-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to LA 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.59 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP