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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 34

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(5:29) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams right guard to NO 35 for -1 yards (98-P.Turner, 56-D.Davis). NO-98-P.Turner was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful. LA-68-T.Nsekhe was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. INJURY UPDATE - LA 94-A.Robinson, knee, QUESTIONABLE to return.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.52 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model