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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 3-C.Akers left end to NO 42 for 13 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.33 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model