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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 15-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.57 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 38, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model