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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to KC 14, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-40-Z.Horvath.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP