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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 11

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.37 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP