4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(:17) 15-C.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +3.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.96 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP