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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 89

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to LAC 39, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.63 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP