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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to LAC 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP