Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(11:42) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to KC 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-K.Toney to KC 21 for 5 yards (36-J.Taylor, 94-C.Rumph).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.11 EP
75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model